Bridge Ratings Consumer Trends: Sirius Satellite Radio Q4/Q1 as of 2/20

[SapperPest19]

"Which Satellite Radio Service did you purchase today?"

XM Radio Sirius Radio

2/20 59% 41%

2/13 51% 49%

2/6 55% 45%

1/30 54% 46%

1/23 56% 44%

1/16 61% 39%

1/19 57% 43%

1/10 47% 53%

Unfortunatly, there does not seem to be any info listed as to the
method or location of this survey. One might assume the locations are
the same as in the survey as to why people got Sirius.

Speaking of the other survey:

"Also this week, for the first time since Bridge Ratings' study of
this consumer behavior, Stern's impact on Sirius sales was edged out
by "Programming Variety" - 30% to 29%. While "no commercials"
consistently is mentioned as a reason to subscribe to one service or
the other, programming content seems to be the draw - even over
price."

http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_02.22.06.SternQ1Subs.htm

[doberman007]

The bridge survey method is indeed unknown.

It does not coreelate at all to the actual sales as tabulated by NPD
from store receipts, but ist does clearly show the inventory isses that
sirius has had of late

[SapperPest19]

On 24 Feb 2006 17:44:52 -0800, "doberman007" <sirius007@gmail.com>
wrote:

>The bridge survey method is indeed unknown.
>
>It does not coreelate at all to the actual sales as tabulated by NPD
>from store receipts, but ist does clearly show the inventory isses that
>sirius has had of late

I am very curious as to how it shows any kind of a shortage? I have
personally seen an ample supply of bot XM and Sirius radios in my
local Best Buy, CompUSA, and Circuit City.

Current inventories at various local stores as of 15FEB06:
===============
Best Buy
------------------------------
Sportster 18
xAct 2
Starmate 9
------------------------------
SKIFI2 4
Roady xt 6
===============
CompUSA
------------------------------
xAct 2
Stream Jockey 5
xAct Replay 8
Audiovox SIRPNP3 13
------------------------------
Tao 4
===============
Circuit City
------------------------------
xAct 6
Starbase 3
------------------------------
SKIFI2 6
Roady xt 5
xpress 6
XCS9 6
===============

As you can see, particular models such as the MyFi and the S50 might
not be in stock, but there are plenty of other models to choose from.
The report indicated that the Stern Effect was only a phase that has
come to an end. Hell, he brought less than a million of his 10-20
million free fm audience with him. And yes, I have those numbers as
well. They were provided by Bridge Ratings and Sirius. If you cannot
find them in any of the numerous threads I have posted them in, I'll
be more than happy to post them here.

[Ricky Ticket]

On Fri, 24 Feb 2006 20:56:55 -0500, SapperPest19 wrote
(in message <6tdvv11f4inl44lk1b8rmmn71ibj8frvhl@4ax.com>):

> From: SapperPest19 <bob@bob.com>
> Newsgroups: alt.fan.howard-stern, alt.fan.opie-and-anthony,
> alt.radio.satellite
>
> On 24 Feb 2006 17:44:52 -0800, "doberman007" <sirius007@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> The bridge survey method is indeed unknown.
>>
>> It does not coreelate at all to the actual sales as tabulated by NPD
>> from store receipts, but ist does clearly show the inventory isses that
>> sirius has had of late
>
> I am very curious as to how it shows any kind of a shortage? I

:Howard Said"

::snicker::

--
"Hope your mommy lets you get another ISP after they kick you off." --Boom
(Internet tough guy/sociopath turned net cop)

[Ricky Ticket]

On Fri, 24 Feb 2006 19:04:53 -0500, SapperPest19 wrote
(in message <oh7vv1tu8vge1ljb3ksalg3b3mbf2prete@4ax.com>):

> "Which Satellite Radio Service did you purchase today?"
>
> XM Radio Sirius Radio
>
> 2/20 59% 41%
>
> 2/13 51% 49%
>
> 2/6 55% 45%
>
> 1/30 54% 46%
>
> 1/23 56% 44%
>
> 1/16 61% 39%
>
> 1/19 57% 43%
>
> 1/10 47% 53%
>
> Unfortunatly, there does not seem to be any info listed as to the
> method or location of this survey. One might assume the locations are
> the same as in the survey as to why people got Sirius.
>
> Speaking of the other survey:
>
> "Also this week, for the first time since Bridge Ratings' study of
> this consumer behavior, Stern's impact on Sirius sales was edged out
> by "Programming Variety" - 30% to 29%. While "no commercials"
> consistently is mentioned as a reason to subscribe to one service or
> the other, programming content seems to be the draw - even over
> price."
>
> http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_02.22.06.SternQ1Subs.htm
>

::snicker::

"Sirius is outselling XM" --Boom

--
"posted the address a couple days ago. -Any time, Fatty Arbuckle.." --Boom

[atomic fireball]

On Fri, 24 Feb 2006 18:04:53 -0600, SapperPest19 <bob@bob.com> wrote:

>
>http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_02.22.06.SternQ1Subs.htm


God bless Bridge Ratings. Finally some solid data to estimate Sirius
subscriptions attributable to Stern without using Howie math:less than
850,000.


1) Sirius subscriptions in Q4 2005 = 1,142,000

2) percentage of subscriptions attributable to Stern = 36.3%
( http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_122805-SternQ4Subs.htm )

3) therefore, number of subscriptions attributable to Stern in Q4 2005
= 414,500 (1,142,000 x 36.3%)

4) Immediately prior to Q4 2005, the percentage of subscription
additions attributable to Stern was 20%. Let's be absurdly generous
and assume that 20% of *all* of Sirius' previous subscribers
(2,174,500) was attributable to Stern: 2,174,500 * 20% = 434,900

5) total subscriptions attributable to Stern = 414,500 + 434,900 =
849,400

[BW Kernighan]

>
> I am very curious as to how it shows any kind of a shortage? I have
> personally seen an ample supply of bot XM and Sirius radios in my
> local Best Buy, CompUSA, and Circuit City.
>

One does get the idea the importance of the "shortage" has been greatly
overstated, which is a nice way of getting some temporary relief from the
rapid drop in Sirius retail demand beginning on January 10. There seems to
have been more stores with ample inventory than the number of stores with
true shortages.

At least SOME Sirius inventory has been readily available just about
everywhere. It appears to have been a limited phenomenon and isn't likely
to have had a huge effect.

[SapperPest19]

On Fri, 24 Feb 2006 19:48:35 -0800, atomic fireball
<atomic.fireball@nospam.com> wrote:

>On Fri, 24 Feb 2006 18:04:53 -0600, SapperPest19 <bob@bob.com> wrote:
>
>>
>>http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_02.22.06.SternQ1Subs.htm
>
>
>God bless Bridge Ratings. Finally some solid data to estimate Sirius
>subscriptions attributable to Stern without using Howie math:less than
>850,000.
>
>
>1) Sirius subscriptions in Q4 2005 = 1,142,000
>
>2) percentage of subscriptions attributable to Stern = 36.3%
>( http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_122805-SternQ4Subs.htm )
>
>3) therefore, number of subscriptions attributable to Stern in Q4 2005
>= 414,500 (1,142,000 x 36.3%)
>
>4) Immediately prior to Q4 2005, the percentage of subscription
>additions attributable to Stern was 20%. Let's be absurdly generous
>and assume that 20% of *all* of Sirius' previous subscribers
>(2,174,500) was attributable to Stern: 2,174,500 * 20% = 434,900
>
>5) total subscriptions attributable to Stern = 414,500 + 434,900 =
>849,400

Numbers put out by sirius on their website:

"During 2005, SIRIUS added 1,554,108 net subscribers from its retail
channel..... The company also added 620,224 net subscribers from its
automotive OEM channel...... For the fourth quarter, SIRIUS added
900,645 net subscribers from its retail channel and 241,705 net
subscribers from its automotive OEM channel."

According to the bridge ratings
[http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_122805-SternQ4Subs.htm], Stern got
a MAXIMUM of 65% of sales at retail outlets during any 1 week period.
Allowing for the fact that sales would be heavier during the weeks
leading up to Christmas and/or his launch an average of 50% could be
reasonably attributed to stern. But since some will bitch if I used
50%, I will use 65%. Since the percentage recorded on the survey
starts out at 22% and continuously grows, one can reasonably say that
in quarters 1-3, Stern got a MAX of 22%. Q4 retail sales were 900,645
(according to sirius) and 653,463 for Q1-4.

900,645 x 65% = 545,419
653,463 x 22% = 143,762
---------------------------------
Total 729,181

And what percentage of people bought cars because Stern? I was
calculating the number of subs that Stern drew.

But we will look at the car subs.

241,705 x 65% = 157,108 for Q4
378,519 x 22% = 83,274 for Q1-3
-------------------------------------------
Total Car Subs 240,382

Car Subs 240,382
Retail Subs 729,181
-----------------------------------
Inflated Total 969,563

Better? And that is being VERY generous.

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[Ben \Last of a Dying Breed\ Rand]

It also looks like more people are buying XM than SIRIUS, according to
the trend.

If I were the Beaknosed Chiseler, I'd be worried about that.

[KK]

On Fri, 24 Feb 2006 19:56:55 -0600, SapperPest19 wrote:

> On 24 Feb 2006 17:44:52 -0800, "doberman007" <sirius007@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>>The bridge survey method is indeed unknown.
>>
>>It does not coreelate at all to the actual sales as tabulated by NPD
>>from store receipts, but ist does clearly show the inventory isses that
>>sirius has had of late
>
> I am very curious as to how it shows any kind of a shortage?

It's a trick question. Everybody has zero stock on Sirius portables,
since they don't exist.