NPD February

[doberman007]

SIRI at 56%
XM at 44%

[LinkedList]

"doberman007" <sirius007@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1142454247.985335.226220@p10g2000cwp.googlegroups.com...
> SIRI at 56%
> XM at 44%

Sounds about right. Translates to dead even, or slight advantage to XM, in
real life.

Thanks...

[David]

On Wed, 15 Mar 2006 20:42:28 GMT, "LinkedList" <LL@Nomail.com> wrote:

>
>"doberman007" <sirius007@gmail.com> wrote in message
>news:1142454247.985335.226220@p10g2000cwp.googlegroups.com...
>> SIRI at 56%
>> XM at 44%
>
>Sounds about right. Translates to dead even, or slight advantage to XM, in
>real life.
>
>Thanks...
>
>
>
You know nothing about reality.

[LinkedList]

> You know nothing about reality.

Jesus H. Christ Ricketts.

Can you STFU about anything? If you don't have something pertinent to the
conversation just don't say anything.

----.

[LinkedList]

Doberman

Of bigger concern to me right now are the raw numbers and how they stack up
against prior months. I've been convinced all along that XM would regain
lost retail share, and this seems to confirm that.

But but companies are getting bashed right now because the Street doesn't
believe the model is sustainable. If the overall subscriber numbers
(combined) aren't reasonably good, both companies will get killed on April
1.

It is good for XM to be taking back retail share quickly (you might have
notice XM's moved back on top at Crutchfields). But it does little good for
XM if the overall numbers are weak.

[SMSullivan1@gmail.com]

I completly agree....marketshare is secondary to growth. Doberman, if
you can, please provide us with the y/y growth percentages.
SMS

[Rich]

Let me help Doberman out regarding the growth charts:

http://tinyurl.com/mdjfj

And for Frontmed who said "Jesus H. Christ Ricketts. Can you STFU
about anything? If you don't have something pertinent to the
conversation just don't say anything"; this is funniest thing I ever
read. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

[Bill]

Rich wrote:
> Let me help Doberman out regarding the growth charts:
>
> http://tinyurl.com/mdjfj
>
The graph numbers for year over year growth don't look too encouraging.
Do you have absolute number of new subscribers for last Feb. vs. this
Feb?

[LinkedList]

> The graph numbers for year over year growth don't look too encouraging.
> Do you have absolute number of new subscribers for last Feb. vs. this
> Feb?

Yeah, that graph is meaningless.

The raw numbers sort of tell the story, but when you combine them with what
the two companies are spending to generate the subscribers it is
eye-opening. SIRI basically spends more than twice as much per
subscriber -- and it really hasn't come down as rapidly as XM's. Strange.

[doberman007]

YOY

Overall 91% growth

Sirius 141% YOY
XM 16% YOY

[Bill]

If that means almost double the number of new subscriberes this
February over last February, then I am feeling quite relieved. Thanks.

[LinkedList]

"doberman007" <sirius007@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1142460088.762751.284500@j33g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> YOY
>
> Overall 91% growth
>
> Sirius 141% YOY
> XM 16% YOY
>

Sirius has had a great 17 months.

[David]

On Wed, 15 Mar 2006 21:10:37 GMT, "LinkedList" <LL@Nomail.com> wrote:

>> You know nothing about reality.
>
>Jesus H. Christ Ricketts.
>
>Can you STFU about anything? If you don't have something pertinent to the
>conversation just don't say anything.
>
>----.
>
>
Oooh. Look at Homie lose it...

[David]

On 15 Mar 2006 13:36:20 -0800, "Rich" <sirius.rich@gmail.com> wrote:

>Let me help Doberman out regarding the growth charts:
>
>http://tinyurl.com/mdjfj
>
>And for Frontmed who said "Jesus H. Christ Ricketts. Can you STFU
>about anything? If you don't have something pertinent to the
>conversation just don't say anything"; this is funniest thing I ever
>read. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
>
There you go again...

[SMSullivan1@gmail.com]

It really depends on how you look at it. They paid (and will continue
paying) a hell of a lot of cash for this run (although I would contend
that the middle 9 months were nothing to brag about) and as for it
extending to 18 months, I would bet against it. I haven't seen this
brought up here but one can argue that this whole Stern debacle (and in
hindsight, this will be how it will be viewed) has given the industry a
black eye. We are now the medium where the infamous Howerd Stern
resides. It will take a little time for XM to recover but recover they
will. As for Sirius, "bring outch yer dead!"

doberman/rich, I want to hear your thoughts on these numbers. You know
this should have been Sirius' peak quarter and now it appears that they
may struggle to win the quarter.

SMS (bnh)

[SMSullivan1@gmail.com]

It really depends on how you look at it. They paid (and will continue
paying) a hell of a lot of cash for this run (although I would contend
that the middle 9 months were nothing to brag about) and as for it
extending to 18 months, I would bet against it. I haven't seen this
brought up here but one can argue that this whole Stern debacle (and in
hindsight, this will be how it will be viewed) has given the industry a
black eye. We are now the medium where the infamous Howerd Stern
resides. It will take a little time for XM to recover but recover they
will. As for Sirius, "bring outch yer dead!"

doberman/rich, I want to hear your thoughts on these numbers. You know
this should have been Sirius' peak quarter and now it appears that they
may struggle to win the quarter.

SMS (bnh)

[Rich]

>>>Yeah, that graph is meaningless.

Why? The graph depicts actual satellite radio sales, not promo radios
and freinds and family freebies. ACTUAL sales.

As one analyst says:

"XM's best month since September, at 44%: This month represented XM's
best performance since September, after which XM faced intense
competition in the form of Howard Stern and averaged a 39% share. We
believe XM's actual retail share might have been closer to 50%, based
on the historical skew of NPD results vs. actual results. NPD
excludes Wal-Mart and XM's company-owned kiosks, but we believe the
data are useful for interpreting market share trends and the direction
of y/y growth rates."

[LinkedList]

>
> Why? The graph depicts actual satellite radio sales, not promo radios
> and freinds and family freebies. ACTUAL sales.

Meaningless. You can't compare two companies that are in totally different
places on their growth curve. You can't compare Sirius because it has been
under the influence of the Stern Effect which has now come to an end. And
the two companies you're comparing with percentages have two totally
different percentage bases.

It is called lying with statistics. And you're no better at it than you are
at lying in English.

>
> As one analyst says:
>
> "XM's best month since September, at 44%: This month represented XM's
> best performance since September, after which XM faced intense
> competition in the form of Howard Stern and averaged a 39% share. We
> believe XM's actual retail share might have been closer to 50%, based
> on the historical skew of NPD results vs. actual results. NPD
> excludes Wal-Mart and XM's company-owned kiosks, but we believe the
> data are useful for interpreting market share trends and the direction
> of y/y growth rates."
>

Here was a commentary today from xm411 that really tells the story:

"I used to work for The NPD Group and was in the Consumer Electronics end of
their business. Let me tell you, I am not going to mention names, but XM
Radio was questioning the data every month, and they were right. NPD
receives point of sale data directly from merchants, usually mostly big
chain stores. But XM Radio units are largely sold by online retailers and
smaller dedicated electronic stores. NPD had no way of accurately reporting
sales of XM capable units. in the beginning, NPD showed sales of only 60,000
units total at that point, yet XM's subscriber base was 200,000+! And this
is when most car makers did NOT offer OEM XM head units."

Totally credible comment and totally accurate.

[LinkedList]

> It really depends on how you look at it. They paid (and will continue
> paying) a hell of a lot of cash for this run (although I would contend
> that the middle 9 months were nothing to brag about) and as for it
> extending to 18 months, I would bet against it. I haven't seen this
> brought up here but one can argue that this whole Stern debacle (and in
> hindsight, this will be how it will be viewed) has given the industry a
> black eye. We are now the medium where the infamous Howerd Stern
> resides. It will take a little time for XM to recover but recover they
> will. As for Sirius, "bring outch yer dead!"
>
> doberman/rich, I want to hear your thoughts on these numbers. You know
> this should have been Sirius' peak quarter and now it appears that they
> may struggle to win the quarter.
>
> SMS (bnh)

You could not be more right. In every respect.

[Rich]

>>>Totally credible comment and totally accurate.

Great! Now get that stock price up. XM did have a good February with
an 18% y over y increase.

[Rich]

>>>There you go again...

My apologies....I was laughing to hard to think.

[LinkedList]

>
> Great! Now get that stock price up. XM did have a good February with
> an 18% y over y increase.

XM is outselling Sirius at retail now, and XM didn't have to roll the dice
on a Howard Stern to do it. Ultimately, that 3/4 billion dollar crapshoot,
helped Sirius, but nowhere near what was needed.

As XM's new hardware rolls out, Sirius will have nothing but a damned
lawsuit to keep them in the news.

Sirius is headed back to the 3s, like I told you it would.

[Rich]

>>this should have been Sirius' peak quarter

Last quarter was Sirius' peak quarter per Frontmed

>>>now it appears that they may struggle to win the quarter.

Why do you say that? The only thing Sirius has struggled with this
quarter was inventory. Sirius is done struggling with that issue.

[LinkedList]

>
> Why do you say that? The only thing Sirius has struggled with this
> quarter was inventory. Sirius is done struggling with that issue.

Oh, they're done with that alright. At Crutchfields, the long-awaited
Sportster is about 6 or 8 down the list.

I'm going to enjoy watching you squirm as your swimming pool full of cash
drains right out into that cesspool...

[David]

On Wed, 15 Mar 2006 23:48:33 GMT, "LinkedList" <LL@Nomail.com> wrote:

> But XM Radio units are largely sold by online retailers and
>smaller dedicated electronic stores. NPD had no way of accurately reporting
>sales of XM capable units.

Of course, Sirius has nothing paralleling this.

[David]

On Thu, 16 Mar 2006 00:06:18 GMT, "LinkedList" <LL@Nomail.com> wrote:

>
>XM is outselling Sirius at retail now,

Another ''fact'' is extracted from where the sun don't shine. You
must write for O'Reilly.

[LinkedList]

>
> Of course, Sirius has nothing paralleling this.

Correct. XM outsells Sirius by a wide margin at the Worlds Largest
Retailer, one of the top few sellers of Satellite Radios. NPD doesn't count
it.

[Rich]

>>>I'm going to enjoy watching you

I already have video of you:

http://jokaroo.com/funnyvideos/jerking_off_world_of_warcraft.html

[Dr. Droo]

Rich wrote:
> I already have video of you:
>
> http://jokaroo.com/funnyvideos/jerking_off_world_of_warcraft.html

Priceless. That could also be CL too though, maybe CL is one of
Frontmed's aliases.

Thought provoking.

--D

[David]

On Thu, 16 Mar 2006 01:24:44 GMT, "LinkedList" <LL@Nomail.com> wrote:

>>
>> Of course, Sirius has nothing paralleling this.
>
>Correct. XM outsells Sirius by a wide margin at the Worlds Largest
>Retailer, one of the top few sellers of Satellite Radios. NPD doesn't count
>it.
>
How do you know?

[Dr. Droo]

David wrote:
> How do you know?

He bought some Sam's Choice-brand Sales Data Book last week for 2.99 on
sale.

--D

[doberman007]

Frontmed......

The status worlds largest retailer matters very little in terms of
SDARS. The fact that sell the most 5 gallon jars of pickles means
nothing here.

Walmart accounted for about 10% of the satellite radios sold in 2005.
Yes, that makes them a player, but lets not pretend that it makes a
huge differance. If you want to throw Wal Mart into the mix simply
deduct 1.5 points from the Sirius NPD total and add it to XM.

[LinkedList]

>
> Walmart accounted for about 10% of the satellite radios sold in 2005.
> Yes, that makes them a player, but lets not pretend that it makes a
> huge differance. If you want to throw Wal Mart into the mix simply
> deduct 1.5 points from the Sirius NPD total and add it to XM.

What we know is that NPD typically overstates SIRI's retail share by 6 or 8
points. We know that.

You understate what WMT sells, however, it isn't a subject that matters --
the bottom line is that NPD data understates XM's total retail share by some
6 or 8 points. Q1 could be different because of the Stern Effect; but we'll
have to wait and see.

[Rich]

What makes up the biggest difference between NPD and actual numbers is
the XM freebies and Parsons swore to the World that was going to stop.
We'll see. The bigger the differential the more radios XM gave away,
end of story.

[LinkedList]

> What makes up the biggest difference between NPD and actual numbers is
> the XM freebies and Parsons swore to the World that was going to stop.
> We'll see. The bigger the differential the more radios XM gave away,
> end of story.

What you don't comprehend is that XM can give away Roady XTs for a fraction
of what it costs Sirius to sell Sportsters for.

Typical. You have lots of bull---- but no ability to grasp the facts.

[Rich]

>>>Typical.

The facts are the bigger the differential between NPD and reported
subscribers, the more radios XM gives away. I am glad you finally see
this trend.

BTW, are you concerned that the % of family plan subs is getting just a
little too high? I am. Where are the new subscribers?

[David]

On Thu, 16 Mar 2006 16:33:12 GMT, "LinkedList" <LL@Nomail.com> wrote:

> XM can give away Roady XTs for a fraction
>of what it costs Sirius to sell Sportsters for.
>

You always make these grand pronouncements based on hearsay from some
pumper at some convention. Where is this ---- in writing?

[Dr. Droo]

LinkedList wrote:
> What you don't comprehend is that XM can give away Roady XTs for a fraction
> of what it costs Sirius to sell Sportsters for.

I don't think Sirius and giving away receivers is a common event
lately. They're too busy selling them all at retail.

--D