NPD Breakdowns

[doberman007]

Rather than debate back and forth with several people who do not have
all of the information to debate about, I thought I would simply give
some important metrics about the NPD data:

1. NPD January was 66% SIRI and 34% XM

2. NPD February was 56% SIRI and 44% XM

3. For those that like to compare the NPD grass retail percentages to
the quarter ending reported share percentages, we can look at last Q1.
The discrepancy was 2 points last year. The reason for this is the
spillover. To simply deduct 6 points from Sirius is an error many will
make, but it is made because these people lack the information to make
an accurate assessment.

4. Year over Year NPD growth for satellite radio in January was 124%.

5. In January Sirius saw 365% year over year growth. XM saw 28%

6. In January Sirius saw 86% of the overall year over year growth. XM
captured 14%.

7. Year over Year NPD growth for satellite radio in February was 65%.

8. In February Sirius saw 140% year over year growth. XM saw 18%.

9. In February Sirius captured 83% of the year over year growth. XM
captured 17%

10. For 2006 (so far) Year over Year NPD growth for satellite radio is
91%

11. For 2006 (so far) saw 198% year over year growth. XM saw 23%

12. For 2006 (so far) Sirius captured 85% of the year over year
growth. XM captured 15%

The bottom line is that the vast majority of retail growth in the NPD
channel for 2006 has been with Sirius. Both companies are showing
growth......Sirius is grabbing most of the growth.

[LinkedList]

Doberman

As we've discussed here time and again, NPD data must be adjusted by 6-10
points to get something approximating true retail netactivations. This has
been true in almost every quarter.

The NPD data is a strong indication that the Stern Effect is over. Your
other favorite indicator the Crutchfield Top Sellers, also reflects that XM
is outselling Sirius at this time.

For Q1, when the true numbers come out, it will be closer to 50/50 than it
will to 56/44.

And for Q2, XM will have once again taken the retail lead, and I predict it
will end Q2 at least at XM=55%, if not better.

[Rich]

>>>I predict it will end Q2 at least at XM=55%, if not better.

Great! Get the stock price up.

[LinkedList]

>
> 2. NPD February was 56% SIRI and 44% XM
>

One other point on this subject -- if SIRI was 56% NPD (which is about 50%
in reality) for Feb, that suggests a > 56% level earlier in Feb (since that
was closer to Stern's go-live date) -- which implies a lower than 56% level
for the last half of Feb.

It could well be 52(XM)/48(SIRI) by now. The difference could be even
greater by now.

Again, what about the Crutchfields Top Sellers?

[Rich]

What about Sirius gaining marketshare at WalMart?

[doberman007]

Frontmed....

Last year the Q1 adjustment was 2 points.

Calling the stern effect over when Sirius was challaged all month with
inventory is not correct IMO.

85% of all of the NPD growth so far this year has gone to Sirius. That
is an important metric.

So far this quarter it is SIRI 61% and XM 39%.

SIRI also had a bigger spillover than did XM.

Historical diff. between NPD and as reported

Q1 2005 - 2 points in favor of XM - spillover effect
Q2 2005 - 3 points in favor of XM - rebate offer Sirius
Q3 2005 - 7 points in favor of XM - double play give away by XM takes
effect
Q4 2005 - 7 points in favor of XM - spillover effect

Not really a 6 to 10 point swing......especially in Q1

[doberman007]

Crutchfield.....

1. XM XMD1000 - $19.99 - for use with multiple brands
2. XM Roady XT - $29.99 - something Parsons promised would not happen
at the bear sterns call
3. Sirius Starmate - $79.99
4. Sirius SIRKEN 1 - $79.99 - kenwood specific
5. Pioneer Airware - $149.99
6. SIrius SIR ALP1 - $79.99 - Alpine specific
7. Kenwood H2EC - $99.99
8. Sirius S50 - $279.99
9. Sirius Sportster replay -$129.99 - recently back in stock
10.Pioneer GEX - XM - $99.99 - pioneer specific

Watch how quickly the sportster moves up the list.

[Rich]

Frontmed won't like the Top Sellers list on Circuit City's site.

[LinkedList]

> 2. XM Roady XT - $29.99 - something Parsons promised would not happen
> at the bear sterns call

This is not true. He said you won't see "$10" radios from XM again. That
said, the XT is built so that it can be sold very cheap. I suspect you know
some XM retailers; talk with one & find out their cost on an XT.

[Rich]

>>>This is not true.

Of course not Frontmed only because you wish not to believe the
Conference Call where Parsons plainly says no more $20-$30 radios.
Just think, if XM would have sold those Stern fighting radios at cost
they would not have lost the Stern fighting $200,000,000 last quarter.
Hell, it would have been cheaper to outbid Sirius for Stern.

What server are on you on at World of Warcraft?

[Dr. Droo]

Rich wrote:
> What server are on you on at World of Warcraft?

I'm guessing it's Fr0ntm3d. Not exactly the world's most creative guy.

--D

[doberman007]

On March 15

1.--XM XMD1000
2. XM Roady XT
3. Sirius Starmate
4. Sirius SIRKEN 1
5. Pioneer Airware
6. SIrius SIR ALP1
7. Kenwood H2EC
8. Sirius S50
9. Sportster Replay
10.Pioneer GEX - XM

Sirius had 6 of the top 10

On March 16

1.--XM XMD1000
2. XM Roady XT
3. Sirius Starmate
4. Sirius SIRKEN 1
5. Pioneer Airware
6. SIrius SIR ALP1
7. Sportster Replay
8. Henwood H2EC
9. Sirius S50
10.SIR JVC1

Sirius has 7 of the top 10

Like I stated.......watch the Sportster replay work up the list

[David]

On 16 Mar 2006 06:50:15 -0800, "doberman007" <sirius007@gmail.com>
wrote:

>On March 15
>
>1.--XM XMD1000
>2. XM Roady XT
>3. Sirius Starmate
>4. Sirius SIRKEN 1
>5. Pioneer Airware
>6. SIrius SIR ALP1
>7. Kenwood H2EC
>8. Sirius S50
>9. Sportster Replay
>10.Pioneer GEX - XM
>
>Sirius had 6 of the top 10
>
>On March 16
>
> 1.--XM XMD1000
>2. XM Roady XT
>3. Sirius Starmate
>4. Sirius SIRKEN 1
>5. Pioneer Airware
>6. SIrius SIR ALP1
>7. Sportster Replay
>8. Henwood H2EC
>9. Sirius S50
>10.SIR JVC1
>
>Sirius has 7 of the top 10
>
>Like I stated.......watch the Sportster replay work up the list
>
The Sportster Replay is the best satellite radio available, IMHO.

[ThirdNormalForm]

> Crutchfield.....
>
> 1. XM XMD1000 - $19.99 - for use with multiple brands
> 2. XM Roady XT - $29.99 - something Parsons promised would not happen
> at the bear sterns call
> 3. Sirius Starmate - $79.99
> 4. Sirius SIRKEN 1 - $79.99 - kenwood specific
> 5. Pioneer Airware - $149.99
> 6. SIrius SIR ALP1 - $79.99 - Alpine specific
> 7. Kenwood H2EC - $99.99
> 8. Sirius S50 - $279.99
> 9. Sirius Sportster replay -$129.99 - recently back in stock
> 10.Pioneer GEX - XM - $99.99 - pioneer specific
>
> Watch how quickly the sportster moves up the list.
>

Dobie

The Sportster seems to have stalled, with XM occupying the top slots.

What about the Stern Effect? Shouldn't Sirius be blowing XM away now?

[Rich]

The Sportster is climbing back to the top as it recently was restocked
at Crutchfield as in Circuit City where the Sportster is the number one
selling satellite radio despite Parsons lying about no more sub $30
radios. Losing a grip there Frontmed?

[Dr. Droo]

Rich wrote:
> The Sportster is climbing back to the top as it recently was restocked
> at Crutchfield as in Circuit City where the Sportster is the number one
> selling satellite radio despite Parsons lying about no more sub $30
> radios. Losing a grip there Frontmed?

http://www.electronics-expo.com/product.jsp?x=SA10175&zipz=11001

Looks like 9.99 AR.

--D

[doberman007]

Frontmed.....

The Sportster is moving up.

And Sirius is blowing away XM.

Out of ALL of the growth in NPD so far this year, Sirius has captured
85% of it.

That is quite substatial. It shows that SDARS is growing very nicely,
and that Sirius is the primary benefactor of all of that growth.

85% of all NPD growth this year has gone to Sirius.......that is quite
a number

[ThirdNormalForm]

>
> The Sportster is moving up.

LOL. The Sportster has stalled. Hasn't moved up in several days.

>
> And Sirius is blowing away XM.

Well, it was in Jan. In Feb, about even. Now, XM is outselling Sirius. Q2
is going to be nice.

> Out of ALL of the growth in NPD so far this year, Sirius has captured
> 85% of it.
>

Bogus statistic.

> That is quite substatial. It shows that SDARS is growing very nicely,
> and that Sirius is the primary benefactor of all of that growth.

Well, the number 5000 is quite substantial, too. And it means just as much
as that 85%.

> 85% of all NPD growth this year has gone to Sirius.......that is quite
> a number


Maybe you should take this up with your "statistics professor" buddy. LOL.
Evidently, you need a little help in this area.

It is over, dude.

[william.utley@gmail.com]

The real test is the second quarter. What if Sirius comes in around
450K and XM comes in around 700K. Gonna be tough if your a SIRI
shareholder

[Rich]

>>It is over, dude.

Tell us wise one, how many net subs will XM add in Q1? Hmmm....?

[Dr. Droo]

Rich wrote:
> Tell us wise one, how many net subs will XM add in Q1? Hmmm....?

Depends on how many free receivers they gave away.

--D

[doberman007]

Frontmed.....

Take the NPD figures from last year. Take the NPD figures from this
year. The diff. between them represents the GROWTH in the NPD
channel. Determine XM's growth and determine Sirius' growth. Conduct
a simple math equation and you have your answer.

Of all of the NPD growth in January and February, 85% of it was Sirius.

It really is quite simple.

By the way......the 5,000 number is quite low.

Frontmed......You stated that the "stern effect was over in
January.....then you revised it to february, now you are saying XM is
winning in March. You are running out of months.

[H.Flashman@gmail.com]

Doberman,

Your good with #'s. Give us your sub estimates for SIRI and XMSR for
the second quarter.

[doberman007]

Second quarter......

I have not even finished Q1 as yet......LOL

[ThirdNormalForm]

>
> Frontmed......You stated that the "stern effect was over in
> January.....then you revised it to february, now you are saying XM is
> winning in March. You are running out of months.

And I believe it was over in Jan. And it has continued to subside, and now
XM is once again outselling Sirius at retail.

Within 90 days of moving to Sirius, XM is back to its retail leadership
position -- not back to previous levels, of course, but a couple months
ought to take care of that.

Do you still claim that Sirius will retain its retail share gains?

[ThirdNormalForm]

> Second quarter......
>
> I have not even finished Q1 as yet......LOL

Dobie

That guy posed a reasonable question. Like him, I defer to your judgment on
subscriber numbers -- nobody spends more time with them than you do, and you
clearly have a handle on the situation.

Do you have any expectations at all about Q2? Retail share figures?
Anything?

[doberman007]

Frontmed......

XM is outselling sirius??????? By what method do you come to this
conclusion??????

Are you counting the freebies that XM is still pushing out the
door?????

Come on now, The split will ultimately approach parity, and that is
well known. How long it takes to get there is not known.

Depends on pricing, inventory, and other factors.

[doberman007]

Frontmed.....

The guy has already stated that he feels XM will be at 700,000 in Q2
and Sirius will be at 450,000.

We do not even have the Q1 number to use as a measuring stick at this
point.

Where he comes up with 700,000 to 450,000 I have no idea.

Retail share figures for Q2.....are you referring to NPD or to "as
reported" with the giveaway factors taken into consideration?

NPD should work down to relative parity IMO. Q2 has fathers day, and a
lot will depend on what promotions are put on the table by these
companies

[ThirdNormalForm]

>
> XM is outselling sirius??????? By what method do you come to this
> conclusion??????

Yes, I believe this to be the case at this time. Can't prove it though.

> Are you counting the freebies that XM is still pushing out the
> door?????

No. That's extra. I got one of them myself today.


> Come on now, The split will ultimately approach parity, and that is
> well known. How long it takes to get there is not known.
>

How can you say that is well known? I've heard some very credible people
claim they see no reason for it to be otherwise; but I see no reason for it
to be true.

I believe XM's technology and content advantages will drive its continued
retail leadersihp.

> Depends on pricing, inventory, and other factors.
>

Yes, it does. The biggest of which is XM's technology and content
advantages. Another of which is XM's better financial situation which
allows it more flexibility in upcoming content acquisitions, should
opportunities occur.

[doberman007]

Frontmed.....

You are really reaching here.

[NoDownTime@gmail.com]

>>>You are really reaching here.

Dobie

You must have missed it. The Stern Effect has been over for a while
now.

As I told you months ago, subs are return to their pre-Stern-hype
norms. Roughly.

[yqf@my-deja.com]

ThirdNormalForm wrote:
> >
> > Frontmed......You stated that the "stern effect was over in
> > January.....then you revised it to february, now you are saying XM is
> > winning in March. You are running out of months.
>
> And I believe it was over in Jan. And it has continued to subside, and now
> XM is once again outselling Sirius at retail.
>

Sure, whatever you say frontmed, but you are also the idiot who
believed that Stern would have fewer listeners when he started on
Sirius than Opie and Anthony had on XM.

You are the idiot who once claimed that you could tell by listening to
the Opie and Anthony show that they had made substantial gains in
attracting listeners.

You are the idiot who claimed that Best Buy had no shortage of certain
Sirius radios when every radio in question was listed as "out of stock"
on their online store.

You frontmed are the idiot who changes his posting alias almost daily,
in what is obviously an attempt to disassociate yourself from the
enormous volume of similarly stupid statements that you have made and
earned you your reputation of having zero credibility.

Change aliases and try again.