Sirius passes 4M subscribers

[Bingo_17]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060320/nym147.html?.v=41

[ThirdNormalForm]

"Bingo_17" <bingo_17@juno.com> wrote in message
news:3rydnUejs_a8L4PZnZ2dnUVZ_s2dnZ2d@scnresearch.com...
> http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060320/nym147.html?.v=41

And this is supposed to be impressive?

If the 750 Million Man was really doing his job, this milestone should have
been passed more than a month ago.

Weak.

[David]

On Mon, 20 Mar 2006 14:21:16 GMT, "ThirdNormalForm" <TNF@nomail.com>
wrote:

>
>"Bingo_17" <bingo_17@juno.com> wrote in message
>news:3rydnUejs_a8L4PZnZ2dnUVZ_s2dnZ2d@scnresearch.com...
>> http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060320/nym147.html?.v=41
>
>And this is supposed to be impressive?
>
>If the 750 Million Man was really doing his job, this milestone should have
>been passed more than a month ago.
>
>Weak.
>
>
Again with the figure extracted from the rectum...

[Mark S.]

ThirdNormalForm wrote:
> "Bingo_17" <bingo_17@juno.com> wrote in message
> news:3rydnUejs_a8L4PZnZ2dnUVZ_s2dnZ2d@scnresearch.com...
>
>>http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060320/nym147.html?.v=41
>
>
> And this is supposed to be impressive?
>
> If the 750 Million Man was really doing his job, this milestone should have
> been passed more than a month ago.
>
> Weak.

More than a month ago? A few weeks off of the Frontmed optimal
projection in a traditionally weak retail quarter and Sirius is weak?
$750 million? We all know the figure varies depending on SIRI's price
in the market, so you go bashing about how SIRI dropped a couple dollars
and in the same breath you claim that Howard's shares are worth THAT
much more than what he got them for? Either you bash Sirius for the
stock price being low, or when the stock price is high you bash Sirius
for paying Howard too much. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

[ThirdNormalForm]

>
> More than a month ago? A few weeks off of the Frontmed optimal
> projection in a traditionally weak retail quarter and Sirius is weak?

Absolutely. They finished the year at 3.3M. Stern claimed to have signed
up "more than 180K" on his first day at work alone -- plus, there should
have been a strong carryover from 12/31. That would have put Sirius at well
above 3.5M (probably 3.6M) on Jan 9.

If Stern was going to bring ANYTHING beyond Jan 9, it would have happened in
the ensuing 60 days.

What this is is proof positive that the "Stern Effect" is over; that Stern's
contract brought a good number of subscribers through the date of his first
show, but that is IT.

> $750 million? We all know the figure varies depending on SIRI's price
> in the market, so you go bashing about how SIRI dropped a couple dollars
> and in the same breath you claim that Howard's shares are worth THAT
> much more than what he got them for?

There is no bashing when it is the truth. The price is determined on the
day the shares are issued. What we know is that SIRI has ALREADY committed
$610M for Stern ($400M in cash committed for the next five years, and $210M
in stock). Stern's deal calls for him to receive a percentage of subscriber
revenue, as well as a split on the ad revenue (which should be substantial).

$750M? Pretty damned close. Certainly more than $700M over 5 years.

> Either you bash Sirius for the
> stock price being low, or when the stock price is high you bash Sirius
> for paying Howard too much. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Doling out 34M shares of stock for Stern, before he ever worked a day for
Sirius, was a stupid agreement anyway you cut it. It was typical of the
previous management. This is the reason Sirius has a fully diluted
sharecount of 1.7 BILLION shares, while XM has managed to keep dilution in
check, with a fully diluted sharecount well below 350M shares.

Dilution and overpaying for content destroyed Sirius as an investment.

[H.Flashman@gmail.com]

The second quarter is the real test. What if Sirius adds 450k subs and
XM does 700K? The valuation gap should begin to correct at that point.

[J. Fowler]

H.Flashman@gmail.com wrote:
> The second quarter is the real test. What if Sirius adds 450k subs and
> XM does 700K? The valuation gap should begin to correct at that point.

I think many expect to see this, perhaps by not 350K, but an ending
trend. Sirius will likely finish Q1 netting around 725K subs with XM not
too far behind. I think that's good news for the industry overall. With
MLB baseball and new technology entering the market, XM should regain
the lead Q2 and moving forward.

[ThirdNormalForm]

> The second quarter is the real test. What if Sirius adds 450k subs and
> XM does 700K? The valuation gap should begin to correct at that point.

Absolutely. If Sirius is able to hang on to its retail share gains through
Jun 30, it will be a major victory for them. But if retail share moves
toward its previous levels, a lot of people are going to have to re-examine
the Stern deal as to its sensibility.

[ThirdNormalForm]

>
> I think many expect to see this, perhaps by not 350K, but an ending
> trend. Sirius will likely finish Q1 netting around 725K subs with XM not
> too far behind. I think that's good news for the industry overall. With
> MLB baseball and new technology entering the market, XM should regain
> the lead Q2 and moving forward.

I would be pleasantly surprised if XM came in anywhere near 725K. I think
550K is probably a lot more realistic for Q1. If they get 600K, I will be
very pleased. Below 500K and I think XM got creamed in Q1.

Still, it is pretty clear to me that XM is outselling Sirius at retail at
this point, so that is what is important to me.

[Dave Zass]

> Still, it is pretty clear to me that XM is outselling Sirius at retail at
> this point, so that is what is important to me.

Tomato soup is clear to you.

Wait, do we like tomato soup?